Not all 3G launches are equal
April 21, 2004
The recent launch of the Vodafone 3G data card across Europe has brought 3G coverage to the forefront of many consumer's minds for the first time since GSM population coverage was the network selection metric of choice for the eager mobile masses. Will 3G population coverage have a similar effect on customer acquisition and retention?
Primarily, in Europe where 3G population coverage comparisons will be the most prevalent over the coming 12-18 months, the 3G launch coverage maps of competing operators will be wildly different. With established players such as T-Mobile in Germany and Vodafone in the UK, their consumer proposition launch will be supported with 3G population coverage in the 50%-60% region. In most countries this is enough to cover all of the major towns and cities as well as transport links of significance. Some smaller players however will only launch with 15-20% population coverage making the challenge of selling 3G and retaining likely users of the service a significant challenge. How does an operator with limited 3G launch coverage sell 3G in its stores for example? Does it sell in the stores that are only within 3G coverage areas? If so, the already predicted slow uptake of 3G services will have to be significantly revised down.
Mako Analysis is one of 3G's closest observers and says that it does not pay to over promise when making 3G coverage claims such as 3UK has. Mako has noted that, "3UK currently states that their 3G coverage is well over the 70% mark, and yet as any 3 customers will tell you, this is far from the case in the real world." The reason for this marked difference can largely be explained by the UMTS specific issue of "cell breathing". "In basic terms cell breathing is the reduction in the coverage of a particular cell site as more and more people begin using it" Mako Analysis says. The range of a single 3G tower shrinks in relation to the network traffic, as such, with a completely empty network, 3 and other 3G operators can claim relatively impressive population coverage figures. As the network begins to load with customers however the coverage range of each base station shrinks and if the network is not provisioned correctly, significant 3G coverage holes will appear.
One of the reasons 3 are criticised for their network quality is down to cell breathing. Since 3 are not able to seamlessly hand a call off from their 3G network to O2's 2G network (O2 UK are currently allowing 3UK to use their network where they lack 3G coverage) the call drops, in effect cutting the user off. Given 3's claimed 70% population coverage, dropped calls of this nature should be a relative rarity. This is far from the case however, as the new entrant's 3G network begins to load with customers their cell site range shrinks and holes appear where they previously had blanket coverage. As customers move around they dip in and out of 3G coverage and this causes a significant increase in dropped calls.
As the majority of 3G operators around the world have switchable legacy networks to fall back on in the case of a voice call, the 3 example serves as a powerful example to those who will be reliant on 3G coverage for data applications, in particular laptop data card users.
As with many marketing generated claims, mobile operator statements on the issue of 3G coverage must be treated with caution. If consumers are now beginning to use 3G network coverage as a minor or major consideration when selecting a mobile service provider they will not be aware of the real world differences in coverage until after they have made their purchase.
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