Forbes/Andrew Seybold's Wireless Outlook Focuses on Growth of 3G Wireless

date: August 29, 2001

Worldwide, networks are making progress with deployment of 3G wireless technology, but implementation has been spotty and gaps remain in user-end technology, reports Andrew M. Seybold in the current issue of Forbes/Andrew Seybold's Wireless Outlook.

In his comprehensive lead article, Seybold analyzes the approaches and technologies employed by leading network operators, their advantages and the obstacles they face and their announced build-out intentions. He finds operators casting their lots with Qualcomm's 3G migration path to be in the most favorable positions, with those opting for GSM/GPRS and EDGE technologies likely facing severe and potentially crippling handicaps. Confronting all, he observes, is the dearth of handheld devices needed to stimulate broad usage of 3G services.

"While network operators rush to launch their networks, being first may not matter since the handsets aren't yet available," he writes. "The handset vendors, on the other hand, want to see the wireless networks widely launched before they spend a lot of money manufacturing handsets.... (but) they need to revitalize their business and they expect the new next-generation systems to give them a boost."

In South Korea, where cdma2000 1x systems have been running since last October, it has taken six months or more to get wireless devices into customers' hands, he writes. Regarding AT&T's GPRS network in Seattle, he states that "... if you want to use the GPRS service to make a phone call, the only compatible phone today is Motorola's Timeport 7382i handset, and they are in short supply." Complicating Verizon's effort, at the moment limited to New York and New Jersey, Seybold observes that because the company's cdma2000 1x network uses both the 800-MHz and the 1900-MHz bands, handset makers wanting to build for the network must support both, increasing engineering challenges and costs.

Considering Metricom's recent Chapter 11 filing, Seybold draws several lessons, among them that the service was a connectivity solution that provided no content, that it was excessively priced, that it had no nationwide access, and that its market was limited to notebook computers and potentially, PDAs, unlike 3G networks, which can support their wireless data efforts with voice traffic while the market develops.

"While (the 3G networks) are building their systems and expanding their data capabilities, their voice customers will continue to provide a revenue stream - a luxury that Metricom did not have," he says.

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