SMS to remain the dominant application

August 18, 2004

Strategy Analytics' Wireless Internet Applications (WIA) Service released its new Cellular Data Forecast model (2004 - 2009). Building on its previous ground breaking forecasts, this report breaks out user numbers, price and frequency-of-use metrics for 21 discrete application categories across the six major geographical regions. Strategy Analytics estimates that global revenues from mobile data will grow from around $61 Billion this year to just over $189 Billion in 2009, with person-to-person messaging representing 48 percent of the total.

Senior Analyst Philip Taylor notes, "Overall, we have trended our outlook upwards since our last forecast. This is due to multiple factors, but principally the faster than expected penetration of rich feature sets into devices, and growing evidence that demand for various types of content is being converted into usage." Despite this however, Strategy Analytics still expects lowly text messaging via SMS to remain the dominant global application, generating 26 percent of all data service revenues in 2009.

David Kerr, Vice President of the Strategy Analytics Global Wireless Practice, adds, "Mobile data services are currently undergoing a period of strong growth as a result of carrier strategies, many of which were implemented in late 2002 and 2003, that have succeeded in establishing a strong base for consumer demand. These include better marketing, lower data prices, greater service availability, faster transmission speeds, richer handset features and more intuitive user interfaces." Kerr further states, "Certain applications are very promising: ringtones and download games continue to perform strongly in many markets, and are increasingly supplemented by video and audio infotainment services as the number of consumer 3G launches ramps up. Entertainment applications will generate revenues of $52 Billion in 2009 with 'Music and Media' and 'Sports' content the top two categories."