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3G Coming, Ready or Not
December 16, 2002
While the UMTS (W-CDMA) landscape is changing daily, due to deployment
delays and handset issues, the transformation of many cdmaOne networks
to CDMA2000 1x is proceeding at a rapid pace, according to In-Stat/MDR.
"The evolution of a cdmaOne network to CDMA 1x is relatively simple
since very few new elements are required," says Ray Jodoin, a Director
with the high-tech market research firm. "The primary hardware addition
is the PDSN, which is the CDMA 2000 equivalent to the UMTS GGSN.
Existing BTSs, BSCs, and MSCs require modification rather than replacement."
In-Stat/MDR has also found that:
- No European carriers have committed to EDGE as an upgrade path,
but Nokia has announced that they will support any deployment with
a GSM/EDGE handset. This, however, should not surprise anyone, since
all base stations shipped for more than one year are GSM/GPRS/EDGE
capable. However, the situation in the Americas, where no spectrum
in the 2GHz band has been allocated, is different. AT&T Wireless,
Cingular, and T-Mobile have announced plans to implement GSM/GPRS/EDGE
upgrades within the existing cellular frequencies, using Compact
EDGE.
- While UMTS has borne the brunt of the recent gloom and doom scenarios,
it is actually being deployed, and generating manufacturing revenue,
at a reasonable rate. It will continue to be deployed at an increasing
rate as handsets become available and coverage deadlines advance.
In Europe, the driving factor will not necessarily be a "killer
application," but quite probably will be the need for more voice
capacity to supplement the strained GSM urban networks. While UMTS
is often portrayed as "expensive," the reality of the situation
is that the hardware cost-per-voice channel is less than one-half
the cost of GSM.
- There will be consolidation in the European UMTS arena. In Germany,
for example, with a penetration rate of more than 65%, there is
hardly room for six UMTS carriers in addition to the four GSM incumbents.
However, in spite of the obvious need to consolidate, deployment
will continue at an accelerated rate next year, as the license holders
struggle to activate as large a revenue stream as possible.
The report, "3G Infrastructure Deployment Update", covers the architecture
and deployment of CDMA2000, GSM/EDGE, and UMTS (W-CDMA). Current,
trial, and planned deployment for CDMA 1x and 1xEV-DO are tabulated
and UMTS deployment and projected revenue through the end of 2003
are forecast by carrier and by country.
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3G Motorola A920
