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Strategy Analytics publishes wireless predictions for 2003
December 19, 2002
In 2003, the Strategy Analytics Global Wireless Practice expects
solid subscriber growth in Asia, disappointing consumer MMS & 3G
ramp up in mature markets, surging Asian vendor handset presence
and an impressive growth rate for enterprise Instant Messaging and
SMS. These are some of the predictions for 3G:
- W-CDMA 3G subscribers fail to break 5 million as global subscribers
pass 1.2 billion in 2003. With Japan's NTT DoCoMo still the sole
standard-bearer for the W-CDMA technology in the face of ever-lengthening
3G launch delays by European operators, 2003 will be another non-event
for the W-CDMA strain of 3G.
- Downloadable games will be the fastest growing consumer application
during 2003, generating $2 billion by the end of the year. Prices
will come under intense price competition as third party distributors
and 3G entrants aggressively attack the market. The vision of arcade
style charging mechanisms, including expiry periods on games and
payment for additional levels/ credits will not see widespread deployment
by mobile games arcades until towards the end of the year as operators
look to educate users and ensure that handset memory is robust enough
to provide adequate quality of service.
- Picture messaging will suffer from slower than anticipated growth
throughout 2003. Free trials, slower than anticipated cross-network
interoperability, persistent problems with the quality of phone
to email MMS, the fact that only 7% of phones sold during the year
will contain an integrated camera, and a continued failure to properly
educate customers at the retail POS, will all serve to dampen MMS
usage.
- SMS and email use within enterprises will remain on an accelerated
growth trajectory generating nearly $6 billion in revenues globally
in 2003. Instant Messaging (IM) will experience the most dramatic
growth in the enterprise with worldwide revenues growing to over
$2 billion by 2007 (a 58% Compound Annual Growth Rate). Within six
years, IM will overtake email as the dominant modality of written
electronic communications.
- While consumer adoption of MMS will sputter in the short term,
MMS and other means of wireless photo/video messaging will find
a surprisingly receptive market in the enterprise sector. Medical
services, construction, manufacturing and other "expert systems"
will leverage mobile imaging technologies as a means of remotely
tapping into a finite supply of centralized expertise for assistance.
Strategy Analytics predicts that enterprises worldwide will spend
over $1 billion on photo and video messaging, growing in 2003.
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3G Motorola A920
