Slow take-up of early 3G services adds to uncertainty in wireless industry - report

February 25, 2004

Research and Markets announced the addition of Scenarios for the Evolution of the Wireless Industry to their offering.

"Great uncertainties over future demand for services and the extent to which alternative technologies will displace existing cellular standards present major challenges to organisations across the wireless industry. Single-line forecasts no longer provide the necessary insight. Organisations need to understand the implications of a number of feasible scenarios for the evolution of the wireless industry, which bring enormous threats and opportunities."

There is great uncertainty in the wireless industry over the demand for future mobile services (heightened by slow take-up of early 3G services) and the extent to which alternative technologies will supplement or displace existing cellular standards to satisfy that demand.

Cellular (e.g. EDGE, WCDMA, HSDPA, CDMA2000), W-LAN (e.g. 802.11b, a and g), broadband wireless access (e.g. 802.16 WiMAX, 802.20) and proprietary (e.g. Flarion, iBurst, Vivato) systems are all vying for significant roles in the wireless industry.

Given the level of uncertainty, single-line forecasting of the future of the wireless industry runs a risk of seriously underplaying the potential impact of many emerging trends.

Building on our analysis in The Role and Impact of Emerging Wireless Technologies, with input from leading industry experts and extensive global case studies, this report presents a number of feasible scenarios for the evolution of the wireless industry, which have profound implications for network operators, equipment and handset vendors and many others.

Each scenario is quantified in terms of service revenues and usage (split by service type), network infrastructure revenues (split by technology type) and handset revenues.

The report identifies the clear winners and losers in each scenario and the strategies that are needed to secure success.

Who should read this report:

Mobile operators: to understand the implications for your business from a set of quantified, plausible scenarios. Identify the opportunities and threats ahead and implications for ARPU. Assess the pros and cons of investment in 3G cellular and alternative technologies. Understand how to plan for uncertain service demand and drive the industry to your advantage. Should large and small players take different routes?

Other operators and service providers (e.g. fixed operators, wireless ISPs): to quantify the opportunities for your business from emerging wireless technologies, and identify the steps you need to take now.

Equipment and handset vendors: to quantify the impact on your business of possible future changes in technology adoption by your customers. What are the opportunities for emerging or 'second tier' players to gain market share? Identify critical actions you need to take to drive adoption of your solutions.

Understand how to protect yourself against scenarios which favour alternative technologies.

Investors and analysts: to understand the impact on service revenues and infrastructure investment of potential future scenarios. Identify the organisations which are likely to be winners and losers in the future scenarios.