Mobile TV and 3G likely to disappoint
February 2, 2006
Deloitte's Technology, Media & Telecommunications (TMT) industry group predicts that, in 2006, search will displace email as the most used digital application, girls will hit the video games, and subscription radio will soar. At the same time, mobile television will disappoint, 3G adoption will be slower than expected, and the digital divide will grow.
"While the technology, telecom and media/entertainment industries are certainly converging," said Phil Asmundson, national managing partner, U.S. TMT group, "we have identified the key trends in each sector that we expect for 2006. There will be some big winners and some big losers -- and some, like always, that gain acceptance at a slower rate than their initial hype forecast."
Key trends identified in the reports include:
Technology
-- Search displaces email as the most-used application -- due to rising functionality, higher speed connectivity, and the 20 exabytes of new digital data expected to be created in 2006. At the same time, we're unlikely to see major advances in search engine user interfaces, implying even more potential value to be captured in the future.
-- Connectivity transforms devices into services -- devices from cameras to cars will be able to be remotely upgraded and updated. Updates will extend from personal computers and mobile phones to GPS receivers, in-car computers, and set-top boxes, creating an opportunity for manufacturers to improve their understanding of customer needs, provide higher quality service and identify new revenue opportunities.
-- The "digital divide" deepens, rather than improves -- historically, the digital divide has been most noticeable between developed and developing countries. This is likely to continue in 2006. Efforts to bridge the digital divide fail to address the underlying problems, including economic, political and social issues. Those on the "losing" end of the divide will be increasingly disadvantaged by their lack of access to the media, to the internet, to electronic communications, and to information.
Telecom
-- A frustrating year for 3G -- customers' needs are being met by existing standards; they don't understand the benefits of 3G and why they should pay for them. 3G will add tens of millions of subscribers, but nowhere near enough to pay back the tens of billions of dollars invested. 2G will continue to represent most of the growth, revenue and margin for the mobile sector.
-- Connectivity inside everything -- the telecom industry will capitalize on maturing machine-generated communications to build connectivity inside machines and devices, resulting in remote process monitoring, asset tracking, traffic flow monitoring and more.
-- MVNO takes off -- telecom providers are looking for new sources of revenue, content companies are looking for new channels, and companies of all types want to leverage their loyal customer bases. This could be the year that MVNO takes off.
Media & Entertainment
-- Mobile television disappoints -- while it will be promoted as the next big thing, and tens of millions of promotional dollars will be spent, consumer acceptance will lag.
-- Video games seek new audiences -- in the wake of the success of new video game platforms, the industry will strive to sustain its growth by creating a considerably larger audience. It will reach out to new demographics, most notably young girls.
-- Subscription radio 2.0 -- radio will follow television as its business model evolves from being advertising-dominated to subscription-dominated, providing added flexibility for customers and new opportunities for providers. New delivery mechanisms, such as internet-based services, will be launched. There are currently over 12 million US satellite radio subscribers; this market is expected to grow 35% through the end of the decade.
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