Analytics Forecasts 469 Million Cellular Handset Sales in 2002

date: January 29, 2002

By 2006, 77% of all handset sold will be replacements, up from 52% in 2001. Despite GSM's overall dominance of the cellular market, CDMA will control a disproportionate share of the 3G markets. The CDMA share of global handset volume will reach 25% by 2006.

Phil Kendall, a Director in the Global Wireless Practice at Strategy Analytics, notes, "Retail sales will have increased to 870 million phones by 2006, at which point Southeast Asia will account for 40% of the total, more than double the size of any other region. Western Europe and North America will see their share of handset sales fall significantly over the next five years from over 50% in 2001 to 36% in 2006."

David Kerr, Vice President of the Strategy Analytics Global Wireless Practice, adds, "Inventory buildup was a huge issue for the global market in 2000 and 2001, with some residual still left to work through in the first half of 2002, especially in Western Europe. Having fallen 13% in 2001, Western European handset sales will remain flat in 2002, before beginning to recover in 2003." He continues, "GSM/W-CDMA based systems will continue to dominate the worldwide cellular market over the next five years. However, CDMAOne/CDMA2000 sales will gain share, passing 200 million units in 2006."

These findings are presented in "Worldwide Cellular Handset Forecast (2001-2006)," a study published recently by Strategy Analytics, Inc., within its strategic advisory service, Wireless Device Strategies.

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