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Patchy progress continues in Eastern Europe's mobile markets

July 8, 2003

During 2002, Russia emerged as the largest and fastest growing mobile market in Eastern Europe, helping to raise penetration in the region to 22 percent. While there is clearly room for further growth, average revenue per user is now in decline and net additions will soon begin to slow. Mobile data services are gaining traction in some markets and boosting ARPU, but deployment and use vary tremendously by country and subregion.

High handset and infrastructure costs and other socioeconomic factors dictate that Eastern Europe will remain secondary to the west for at least the next few decades. Nevertheless, during the next 5 years as growth slows in Western Europe, more attention will turn to a region that by 2007 will

- Grow to 125 million mobile users, with half residing in Poland and Russia, pushing regional mobile penetration to 37 percent

- Generate US$29 billion in annual service revenue, with mobile data contributing US$4.6 billion (16 percent)

- Have regional pockets of highly advanced mobile data infrastructure and services, including 3G, but remain largely underdeveloped due to continuing economic inequity

- See blended ARPU dip and then recover to almost US$20 per month, with data ARPU approaching US$5 in the Czech Republic and Hungary

In this report, the Yankee Group examines recent developments in Eastern European mobile markets and presents an updated forecasts for users, voice and data ARPU, and carrier service revenue.

Eastern Europe: Mobile Users and Penetration by Country

Source: The Yankee Group, 2003

 


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