WiMAX to complement 3G/4G netowrks
March 14, 2006
Pioneer Consulting's new report, The Impact of 3G & 4G Wireless Technology on Carriers' Network Development Strategies, concludes that WiMAX will have a significant role to play in the evolution of mobile networks. A survey of manufacturers and network operators indicates that they are making plans to incorporate 4G technology as a value-adding adjunct to existing mobile infrastructure and services.
"WiMAX has received a lot of negative publicity recently," says Julian Rawle, Managing Partner, "but when you look beyond the hype and anti-hype, there is a viable business case for the fixed standard and maybe also for the mobile standard."
Instead of characterizing the evolution of 3G and 4G mobile technologies as a battle to the death between species, the report highlights the potential for complementarity between the various technologies which reside under the 3G and 4G "umbrellas". Pioneer's Managing Partner, Howard Kidorf, commented, "In modeling scenarios for 4G development, we found that accelerated growth in demand for 4G stimulates interest in broadband wireless applications which also has a beneficial impact on demand for 3G."
Nevertheless, Pioneer acknowledges that the future of 4G technology is by no means certain. More investment in R&D is required, the issue of global spectrum harmonization is unresolved, and equipment certification has only recently begun.
Pioneer's report segments the potential WiMAX market into "fixed wireless backhaul" and "mobile". It provides forecasts to 2010 of subscriber numbers, penetration rates, and base station installations across North America, Europe, and Asia Pacific for 2G, 3G, and 4G mobile technologies. The value of WiMAX equipment in the backhaul market is forecast and an innovative approach is used to forecast mobile demand in terms of bandwidth usage.
The conclusion from these forecasts is that WiMAX will establish market share over the next few years at a significant growth rate but will not become the dominant mobile technology any time soon.
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