Qualcomm and Teleepoch
Enter Into a 3G CDMA Subscriber Unit License Agreement, October
6, 2007
MTN chooses Cambridge Broadband
Networks for multi-service wireless network in Rwanda, October 6,
2007
Brazilian government to
publish 3G bidding rules soon, October 6, 2007
KTF 3G service suffers
from technical problems, October 6, 2007
Argentina’s Personal
lunches 3G service in Rosario, October 6, 2007
Russia has it's first 3G
network, October 6, 2007
AT&T could drop Alcatel-Lucent
as 3G mobile network supplier, October 6, 2007
Enea Extends License Agreement
with ZTE for 3G Handsets, October 2, 2007
LG to unveil premium handsets
in Brazil, October 2, 2007
KTF 3G subscribers doubled
in less than 3 months, October 2, 2007
3G policy in India will
be non-uniform, October 2, 2007
- previous news
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WLAN will not be a threat to 3G - in the long run
May 22, 2003
There is a lot of discussion about WLAN at the moment and how it could
affect the 3G business models by simply being a faster and cheaper alternative
to transfer data than 3G can offer.
However, the discussion going on at numerous conferences around the world
does seem to be somewhat spurred on by some people with some sort of interest
in WLAN, rather than an unbiased look at WLAN opportunities in the future.
Some market players - including mobile operators - are also investing
in WLAN partly to use the possibilities that WLAN offers today, but also
to have WLAN onboard in the case that it really takes off.
While there is no doubt that WLAN will be a good complementary technology
to 2.5G and 3G data transfer, actually stating that it will be able to
dilute the 3G business models is very premature and actually does seem
more like one of those famous quotes that we all are so familiar with,
like: "There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
Ken Olsen President, Chairman and founder of Digital, 1977.
Ken Olsen was absolutely right when he said that back in 1977. In those
days computers were still huge, Bill Gates had just dropped out of Harvard,
Steve Wozniak offered his new computer (Apple) to Hewlett-Packard, who
reject it as a non-viable product and Steve's partner and co-founder Ron
Wayne promptly sold his shares in Apple for US$800!
But if Ken Olsen had looked further ahead, at how technology always seems
to get faster, smaller, cheaper and creates new uses for itself, he might
not have been so bold in his statement.
This seems to be much the same case with WLAN right now. Most people
seem to be focusing on the short-term possibilities with this technology
and coming to the conclusion that WLAN will have an impact on 3G in the
longer term.
Compared to 3G, WLAN has quite a long list of factors that would need
to be addressed, before WLAN gets up to the level of 3G. Some of the more
important factors are things like:
- Lack of business models
- Few or no roaming possibilities, both nationally and internationally
- Less coverage than 3G
- Voice over IP is not as developed as the mobile standards
- Difficult for seamless handover between networks when on the move
- Low penetration of WLAN enabled handhelds compared to mobile phones
- Few in the WLAN business can afford to subsidise terminals on the scale
we see on the mobile markets
Basically right now, WLAN offers faster online access than the mobile
technologies can offer. So if you are in an airport lounge it is both
cheaper and much faster to connect your Laptop or Pocket PC through a
WLAN connection than through your mobile operator. However, once you are
on the move WLAN becomes more difficult. Here people are saying that in
the future there will be huge WLAN coverage both from public and private
WLAN networks, but this is where some of the issues start to arise.
If you have a private WLAN network that others nearby can access - how
will you ensure that they are not downloading illegal content? The first
court cases have already turned up with huge bills being sent out to users
downloading movies from sites like Kazaa. And that is just movies - there
is other content that is much worse. I would ensure myself by not giving
others access. Also many ISP's have a longer-term strategy of leaving
the flat rate scenario. There are already a number of Scandinavian ISP's
that now offer price plans for ADSL where they charge Euro 0,07 pr. downloaded
Mb! Would you like to pay for other people's use of your WLAN?
In the early days of the Internet, there were Internet Cafes on every
corner of every city. But in those days, many did not have a PC at home.
Today, only the larger remain, often catering for tourists in the bigger
cities. As more and more people can not only check and send email from
their mobile phone - but also send pictures home as well, even that business
will decline. Many Internet Cafes have more focus on games today, catering
for the younger generation and serving as a meeting point and place to
hang out.
In the same way WLAN has a function today and can fill a gap - for now.
If you look at the longer term, the basic two parameters where WLAN has
its advantage today - speed and price - will no longer have quite the
same effect. Looking at speed, mobile networks already offer speeds of
up to 2Gb download in places like South Korea and pricing for mobile data
traffic will not only come down, but also be differentiated depending
on what type of data you are accessing on the network.
Of course WLAN will evolve as well, but right now there are few real
indications that in the longer term WLAN will endanger the 3G business
models.
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3G Motorola A920
