4G Is Imminent on the Heels of 3G, Visant Technologies Study Says
November 22, 2002
Fourth generation wireless will be rolled out by this time next
year by forward-thinking wireless operators who are now working
with 4G technology providers in an effort to leapfrog expensive
and ineffective third generation wireless strategies.
According to a new study, "3G Alternatives: 3G vs. Wi-Fi vs. 4G"
from Visant Strategies, 4G cellular technologies may be deployed
as soon as mid-2003. A number of different 4G air interfaces are
now being readied for beta deployments by leading wireless operators
since 4G technologies offer a lower cost and/or higher performance
alternative to traditional 3G systems.
4G digital I/P-based high-speed cellular systems are anticipated
to account for 14% of total mobile wireless data revenues in 2007
and 50 million subscribers by year-end 2007. 4G infrastructure sales
will reach $5.3 billion during 2007.
WLAN enabled hot spots will generate approximately $12 billion
in revenues in 2007. Wi-Fi, operators and aggregators will form
a symbiotic relationship with mobile operators, with mobile carriers
accounting for over 60% of all hot spot revenues in 2007. Mobile
operators are already using Wi-Fi to complement existing services
and are expanding the use of the technology, particularly in the
enterprise sector, which is fueling both Wi-Fi and mobile wireless
applications.
Wi-Fi's threat to 3G is not fully realized until it is coupled
with existing 2.5G technologies such as GPRS. Together these technologies
can provide wide coverage at roughly analog modem speeds and fast
data rates in areas with heavy user traffic.
Despite threats, 3G is expected to show positive results in the
long run. Subscribers to W-CDMA-based services are expected to reach
90 million by 2007, mainly in Japan and Europe. Operators are now
seeking to extend the life and capabilities of existing 2G systems
through inexpensive and expensive upgrades to GPRS, EDGE, and cdma2000
1XRTT thus delaying the deployment of 3G solutions such as W-CDMA.
The study defines global growth in 2.5G, 3G, 4G and Wi-Fi with
subscribers, market share and sales of infrastructure from 2002
through 2007.
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