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Merrill Lynch positive over Hutchison 3G future

November 29, 2003

Merrill Lynch is bullish on Hutchison Whampoa's 3G business, contradicting many beliefs in the market. It said the disappointing sign up rate in Europe was largely due to a shortage of handsets and not a lack of demand. It views demand is more important than short-term subscriber targets.

Merrill Lynch accepts that Hutchison will miss its year-end one million subscriber target for the UK and Italy but expects both markets to reach the target by August of next year. Hutchison's former telecom business, Orange, took 3 years to obtain the same target.

The investment bank said Hutchison did well in both markets between July and August, signing up 60,000 per month in the UK and 75,000 in Italy, when it is usually a quite period for operators.

The difficulties faced by Hutchison 3G are not uncommon for a start-up business said Merrill Lynch. So far, in most cases it is outperforming Orange at equivalent stages.

Merrill Lynch maintains a 'Buy' rating on Hutchison shares. It expects Hutchison to achieve bottom-line break even in 2007. Merrill said Hutchsion 3G may launch an initial public offering around 2005-06 when it anticipates Hutchison to reach positive Ebitda.

An analyst told 3GNewsroom that 3 faces more problems in the UK than in Italy. Its business in the UK already has a bad reputation after being featured on the BBC Watchdog consumer programme. The customer call centre has come under intense criticism and its 3G service has limited coverage outside of London. He said customers signing up to 3 expecting video conferencing are not getting what 3 promised. He believes current bulky handsets are putting potential customers joining 3 but once new handsets arrive the situation could improve.

 


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