Government policies a major influence on 3G market in China

November 9, 2005

The 3G market in China has great promise, but faces much uncertainty, including the government's developing policies on the high-speed wireless technology, reports In-Stat. The number of mobile subscribers in China will reach nearly 610 million in 2009, with the percentage of 3G users ranging from 23%-58%, depending on various competitive scenarios and operator strategies, the high-tech market research firm says.

"In-Stat believes 3G licenses will be issued, at the earliest, in the beginning of 2006, after an industry restructuring of wireless network operators," said Anty Zheng, In-Stat analyst. "Three 3G licenses will be issued if China Unicom and China Netcom are to be merged, and four licenses will be issued if no merger occurs."

A recent report by In-Stat found the following:

-- WCDMA technology will be the dominating 3G technology in China, while TD-SCDMA will grow gradually over time.

-- Government considerations will greatly influence factors such as technology maturity, handset availability, system compatibility, global roaming capability, and construction costs.

-- Voice will still be the dominating service for 3G in China, while mobile Internet access service will be the fastest-growing service.

The report, "China's Road Into 3G", covers the emerging market for 3G in China. It includes an overview of the present Chinese mobile market, analysis of drivers and challenges of 3G service, and forecasts of subscribers and service revenue through 2015.