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The Yankee Group Forecasts Global Wireless Users to Exceed 1.75 Billion in 2007

October 2, 2003

The Yankee Group report, “Data ARPUs Save the Day for Wireless Operators,” finds that operators in all parts of the globe will be spared a steep decline in ARPU, and perhaps even in revenue, thanks to increases in both penetration of data services and ARPU.

Voice ARPU will continue to decline in real terms for all regions. Only the increase in data revenue will prevent total ARPU from falling as quickly, and only subscriber growth will prevent revenue from declining. In fact, global subscribers will grow nearly 9 percent from 2002 to 2007, exceeding 1.75 billion. Revenue will grow 9 percent, on average, but growth will vary from region to region: less than 5 percent for North America, 7 percent for EMEA and more than 10 percent for Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Asia-Pacific will register the strongest revenue growth (nearly 15 percent) driven by almost 20 percent expected growth in China.

“Our Global Wireless/Mobile Forecast shows penetration will continue to grow in all regions. As it does, voice ARPU will decline as competition lowers prices and because late adopters tend to have a less urgent need for wireless service,” says Wally Swain, Yankee Group Wireless/Mobile Latin America analyst. “Fortunately, wireless data services also are growing, both in penetration and ARPU. Data ARPU grows with penetration because 2.5G networks bring new applications to new markets. Not only will business use of wireless data for enterprise applications increase, but consumers also will find new sources of entertainment and information.”

 


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