Qualcomm and Teleepoch
Enter Into a 3G CDMA Subscriber Unit License Agreement, October
6, 2007
MTN chooses Cambridge Broadband
Networks for multi-service wireless network in Rwanda, October 6,
2007
Brazilian government to
publish 3G bidding rules soon, October 6, 2007
KTF 3G service suffers
from technical problems, October 6, 2007
Argentina’s Personal
lunches 3G service in Rosario, October 6, 2007
Russia has it's first 3G
network, October 6, 2007
AT&T could drop Alcatel-Lucent
as 3G mobile network supplier, October 6, 2007
Enea Extends License Agreement
with ZTE for 3G Handsets, October 2, 2007
LG to unveil premium handsets
in Brazil, October 2, 2007
KTF 3G subscribers doubled
in less than 3 months, October 2, 2007
3G policy in India will
be non-uniform, October 2, 2007
- previous news
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Justifying the Move to 3G
September 11, 2003 - source: the
research room
An issue that has not been explored in detail by many analysts or journalists
is the fact that for many operators, the move to 3G is NOT an obvious
one. At present, in many mature mobile markets, the majority of the operators
are happily offering mobile data services on GSM or CDMA networks and
by-and-large, their customer base is happy with the voice and relatively
simple data services that they are offering. Excepting those operators
who desperately require extra spectrum because their exiting network is
at capacity, there seems to be very little motivation for an operator
in such a comfortable position to spend many billions of dollars on a
new network when their existing network is doing just fine. And after
they build their new network, they will have to transition their existing
customers across to the new network, and possibly lose them in the process…
Whether the extra revenue that 3G will bring to the operators will pay
back the investment is a decision that is out of the hands of some operators.
When they are competing in a market with a new 3G entrant (such as many
European and Asian countries) they may have little choice but to move
to 3G, as the new entrants will be able to offer services previously unheard
of on cellular networks, such as live, person-to-person video (as offered
by 3) and streaming video services. In these countries the move to 3G
is purely to protect their own customer base. However, in countries where
there are new entrants, the decision to move to 3G is a much harder one
- and even strict regulation does not seem to be enough to get real services
up and running.
The lower costs of running a 3G network will also be a benefit of moving
to 3G - although again for existing 2G operators, it will be many years
(if ever) before they can switch off their more expensive 2G network.
So why the hype of 3G? For years, many in the industry have been talking
up the benefits of 3G services without realising the costs involved. A
simple cost-benefit analysis shows that the payback will be many years
- perhaps up to 20 in some countries. However, many forget that this was
also the case with 2G services. The GSM, TDMA and CDMA networks cost more
than the current 3G networks to build, and at the time of build, there
were even lower expectations of success than with 3G. In fact, if you
examine some of the early mobile subscriber forecasts (from the mid-90s),
the subscriber penetration generally peaked at around 5-10%... And yet,
the mobile operators still built their expensive 2G networks.
3G services are and will continue to be a gamble. What is certain is
that they are either coming, or in some countries, here already. Once
a critical mass of users have adopted the service, the growth will be
phenomenal - but even in this situation, the payback period will not be
short. 3G is here for the long haul - it will cripple some operators,
create champions out of others and generally change the mobile landscape
in some countries. And hopefully some consumers will benefit too...
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3G Motorola A920
